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This week, Moody’s Analytics expects a 50 bps increase in BSP rates.

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According to Moody’s Analytics, the main cause of a potential 50 basis point increase in the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) key rates this week is anticipated to be the sustained acceleration of domestic inflation rate.

According to the economic research arm of Moody’s Corporation, “Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas would boost the policy rate by 50 basis points to 6 percent in February as it attempts to address still high headline and underlying inflation.”

On February 16, the Monetary Board (MB), which sets the central bank’s policy, will hold its first rate-setting meeting. Given the inflation rate’s recent climb, it is widely anticipated that the MB will announce another rate increase.

According to data released this week by the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA), the rate of price rises in January of last year accelerated to 8.7% percent, a new 14-year high.

This goes against the notion that the nation’s inflation rate peaked in December.

The central bank “will be forceful in combating inflation early in 2023,” according to Moody’s Analytics.

With its anticipated rate increase, the central bank’s overnight reverse repurchase (RRP) rate would rise to 6 percent, a significant increase after the BSP lowered it to a record-low of 2 percent in 2020 to help mitigate the economic impact of the pandemic.

Given the Philippines’ persistently high inflation, Moody’s Analytics stated, “Odds are strong that the monetary policy tightening cycle will run for longer in the Philippines than elsewhere in Asia.”

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