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The BSP maintains key interest rates while raising inflation projections.

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) key rates were held constant on Thursday, September 23, 2021, although the anticipated average inflation rate was increased through 2023.

BSP Governor Benjamin Diokno said risks to the inflation outlook this year have tilted to the upside but remain broadly balanced for the next two years, with the former due to the impact of higher commodity prices caused by supply-side factors, according to a briefing streamed through the central bank’s Facebook page.

Upside risks to the inflation forecast, according to Diokno, include rising commodity prices in the foreign market, partially owing to improved demand, and persistent supply-chain bottlenecks in the local market caused by weather disruptions and the African swine fever (ASF).

However, due to the more infectious Delta form, the increase of coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) infections is anticipated to counteract these causes, he added.

“The Monetary Board also said that the prospect for recovery is still dependent on timely actions to avoid the Philippine economy from suffering more negative consequences.” To that end, he said, “the government’s immunization program must be accelerated, and current quarantine procedures must be re-calibrated to enable economic activity while protecting public health and welfare.”

“Keeping a firm hold on the BSP’s policy levers, along with appropriate budgetary and health measures, would enable the momentum of economic recovery to gain greater traction by helping increase domestic demand and market confidence,” Diokno added.

“The BSP will continue to keep a careful eye on changing circumstances for any risks to the inflation goal in the future.” “The BSP is ready to take whatever steps are required to ensure that the monetary policy stance stays consistent with its pricing and financial stability mandates,” he added.

BSP Deputy Governor Francisco Dakila Jr. said at the same conference that average projections for this year through 2023 had been revised higher to 4.4 percent, 3.3 percent, and 3.2 percent, respectively.

Previously, they were set at 4.1 percent in 2021, 3.1 percent in 2022, and 3.1 percent in 2023.

Dakila ascribed these shifts to the effect of higher-than-anticipated inflation of 4.9 percent in August 2018, which escalated to its highest since 4.4 percent in January 2019, price increases in basic and prime commodities, and the arrival of imported pork that was later than planned.

He predicted that inflation will climb over the government’s 2 percent to 4% goal range until October, before returning to within-target levels by November.

“Inflation pressures are very short term and originate from the supply side,” he said, adding that the predictions through 2023 “are actually pretty controllable.”

He said, “As past instances of supply-side shocks in the nation have demonstrated, supply-side shocks are best handled via non-monetary policy measures that may relieve domestic supply.”

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