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The rate of Covid-19 case increase in the NCR has dropped to 2%, according to the OCTA.

According to the seven-day moving average of new infections, the growth of Covid-19 cases in the National Capital Region (NCR) has fallen to 2%, according to the OCTA Research Group.

On Saturday, NCR’s growth rate was 3%.

“The decrease in growth rate could have two explanations: the trend of new cases in the NCR is nearing a peak, or new cases in the NCR are limited by testing capacity, i.e., the volume of testing is insufficient given the new number of cases,” OCTA Research Group member Dr. Guido David wrote on his Twitter account @iamguidodavid.

He explained that the number of new cases in the region is on the verge of peaking if the number of new infections begins to decline by next week.

If the region’s testing capacity is restricted, David predicts that the number of new cases will “hover around the same level until the decreasing trend occurs.”

According to Department of Health (DOH) data, the total number of new reported cases in the NCR from January 1 to 14 was around 165,000.

“This suggests that, within a 95 percent confidence interval, the true number of cases, which includes asymptomatic and symptomatic patients not tested and those tested with antigen but not reported, could be 6 to 15 times greater than official statistics given by DOH,” he said.

NCR had 18,422 new cases on Saturday.

According to DOH data supplied by David, Cavite had the highest new infections with 2,988, followed by Rizal with 2,546, Laguna with 2,473, Batangas with 1,079, and Quezon with 315.

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