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By 2024, inflation risks are expected to be balanced: BSP

The increase in domestic inflation in November from 7.7 percent to 8 percent was expected by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP), which anticipates that risks will be balanced only by 2024 after slowing down in the near future.

The BSP issued a statement on Tuesday in which it stated that “inflation is forecast to decelerate in the ensuing months due to lowering global oil and non-oil prices, negative base effects, and as the influence of BSP’s cumulative policy rate reductions make its way to the economy.”

It had originally predicted that the rate of price hikes in November would remain between 7.4 and 8.2 percent.

Inflation is expected to reach its peak either this month or in January 2023.

The Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) linked larger year-over-year increases in the food and alcoholic beverages index, as well as those from restaurants and lodging services, to the further acceleration of the inflation rate, which is at its highest level since November 2008.

The government’s target range of 2 to 4 percent was exceeded by the average inflation rate throughout the first 11 months of this year, which was 5.6 percent.

The BSP projects that inflation would be 5.6 percent on average this year.

According to the report, threats to inflation are still on the rise as a result of rising food and fertilizer prices, among other things, on the global market, as well as trade restrictions and unfavorable weather patterns around the world.

The latest round also noted “higher food costs from further domestic weather-related disturbances and supply interruptions in major food commodities, such as sugar and meat, as well as outstanding petitions for transport ticket hikes as upside risks to the inflation outlook.”

The repercussions of a weaker-than-anticipated global economic rebound are anticipated to balance these variables.

The Monetary Board (MB), which is responsible for setting policy, “will continue to review the country’s inflation outlook and macroeconomic prospects in its monetary policy meeting on December 15, 2022,” according to the BSP.

The BSP is still ready to implement any additional monetary policy measures required to return inflation to a target-consistent path in the medium term. The timely implementation of non-monetary government actions to lessen the impact of ongoing supply-side pressures on inflation also gives the BSP comfort, it continued.

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