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By February 14, OCTA expects fewer than 1,000 Covid-19 cases in the NCR.

The Omicron variation is causing a decline in coronavirus infections in Metro Manila, according to OCTA Research, which predicts daily cases in the region to drop to less than 1,000 infections by Valentine’s Day.

OCTA Research fellow, Dr. Guido David, noted during the Go Negosyo’s Booster to the Max Townhall on Friday that there is already a lower trajectory of cases in the National Capital Region (NCR), with average instances declining by 20% week-on-week.

He went on to say that since the government restored Metro Manila to Alert Level 3 on January 3, the number of reproductions in the NCR has been declining.

NCR will have more than 2,000 daily instances by the end of January, up from a peak of 8,000 cases per day, according to David.

“By Valentine’s Day, there may be at least 1,000 cases,” he said, “and by the end of February, there would be less than 500 cases.”

Despite the fact that conditions in Metro Manila are improving, David believes that lowering the alert level system “may not be advisable until NCR reaches intermediate danger” in order to maintain the quick decline in instances observed by OCTA Research.

While the number of cases in the NCR is decreasing, Covid-19 infections outside of Metro Manila have not yet peaked.

According to David, the Omicron variety is still driving an increase in cases in places outside of the NCR.

Cases in Cebu City, for example, are increasing but have not yet hit their peak of fewer than 1,000 cases, which he expects by the end of the month.

He went on to say that the predicted peak daily cases in Cebu City would be three times more than the Delta surge’s peak.

“However, this would be a faster wave than the Delta.” So our Cebu friends will just have to brace themselves and wait for the wave to pass,” David explained.

Meanwhile, OCTA Research Fellow and University of Santo Tomas professor Fr. Nicanor Austriaco said Covid-19 will continue to evolve after the Omicron surge, but a strain “scarier” than the Omicron would be “very difficult to arise.”

According to Austriaco, the structure of the Omicron variety makes it “extremely difficult” for Covid-19 to evolve into a more severe strain that can evade the immune system better than Omicron, citing molecular biologists’ findings.

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