NextGen Day

Most private sector organizations overshot their inflation predictions for September 2021, with a median expectation of 5%, which is higher than the actual headline inflation rate of 4.8 percent for the month.

Only John Paolo Rivera of the Asian Institute of Management (AIM) and Emmanuel Lopez of the Colegio de San Juan de Letran, according to a newspaper survey, predicted a lower rate of 4.5 percent and 4.7 percent, respectively, while 15 others predicted a rate between 4.9 and 5.2 percent.

The September inflation rate is expected to reach 4.9 percent, according to Standard Chartered analyst Jonathan Koh and Citi’s Nalin Chutchotitham.

Alvin Joseph Arogo, vice president and head of the Equity Research Division at the Philippine National Bank (PNB), Patrick Ella of Sun Life Financial (SunLife), Nicholas Antonio Mapa of ING Bank NV Manila, Ser Percival Pea-Reyes of Ateneo de Manila University (ADMU), Michael Ricafort of Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. (RCBC), and Katrina Ell of Moody’s Analytics Senior Asia-Pacific economist Katrina Ell of Moody’s

The Bank of the Philippine Islands (BPI) lead economist Emilio Neri, Jr., Security Bank Corp. (SBC) chief economist Robert Dan Roces, BDO Unibank’s Jonathan Ravelas, GlobalSource Partners analyst Romeo Bernardo, and Union Bank of the Philippines (UnionBankRuben )’s Carlo Asuncion all predicted 5.1 percent inflation, while Mitzie Irene Conchada of De La Salle University (DLSU) and Pantheon Economics’ Miguel Chanco both

“Analysts from the private sector seemed to have anticipated the worst,” the DOF stated. “The median inflation rate is at 5%, slightly above the actual September 2021 inflation, according to the BusinessWorld survey.”

According to the Department of Finance, the country’s headline inflation fell to 4.8 percent in September 2021 from 4.9 percent in August, which is within the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ forecast of 4.8 to 5.6 percent (BSP).

According to the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA), the decrease in total inflation in September was mostly due to a lower annual rate of increase in the transport index, which was 5.2 percent in September compared to 7.2 percent the previous month.

Food and non-alcoholic drinks (6.2 percent); furnishing, home equipment, and regular house maintenance (2.4 percent); communication (0.2 percent); and education (0.9 percent) all saw yearly increases slow down, contributing to the overall inflation slowdown, according to the PSA.

The new statistics showed average inflation at 4.5 percent, which is higher than the BSP’s goal range of 2 to 4 percent.

According to the DOF, “BSP Governor Benjamin Diokno said that inflation is likely to continue high in the coming months before settling to target levels by the end of 2021.”

Weather disruptions, global oil prospects, and the African swine flu (ASF), according to Diokno, continued to increase the inflation rate.

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