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MANILA, Philippines — Despite projections of higher inflation, the domestic inflation rate is not expected to exceed 5% until the first half of 2023.

BSP Department of Economic Research (DER) Managing Director Zeno Ronald Abenoja said oil price developments in the international market, as well as changes in commodity prices, are among the variables driving the inflation rate at a virtual briefing on Tuesday.

“Inflation is not expected to exceed 5%, according to forecasts.” “It might go as high as 5%, but the situation is unpredictable,” he warned.

Last March, the central bank’s policy-making Monetary Board (MB) raised the BSP’s average inflation prediction for this year and next year to 4.3 percent and 3.6 percent, respectively, during its rate-setting meeting.

This year’s average inflation forecast is already higher than the government’s 2-4 percent target zone through 2023.

These were previously set at 3.7 percent and 3.3 percent, respectively, for 2022 and 2023.

Last March, the rate of inflation jumped to 4% after remaining at 3% for the previous two months.

During the Board’s next rate-setting meeting in May, Abenoja said the Board will re-evaluate the situation.

Oil prices on the international market, he said, will be one of the factors the Board will consider.

While oil price fluctuations affect prices, he continued, the government continues to implement steps to alleviate supply-side constraints, such as increased food imports and subsidies, which are considered as preventing second-round consequences.

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