NextGen Day

El Nino is now more likely to occur in June through the first quarter of 2024, according to a weather agency official on Tuesday.

According to Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) Deputy Administrator Esperanza Cayanan, the likelihood of an El Nino between June and August has climbed from a 55 percent possibility to 80 percent.

El Nino might occur between November and January 2024 with an 87 percent chance.

El Nino may cause a drought or dry period in some parts of the nation, although this won’t be felt until the fourth quarter, according to Cayanan.

Since it will be rainy or “habagat” season (southwest monsoon) from June to September, Cayanan noted, it is conceivable to endure substantial rainfall before seeing El Nino’s consequences.

“Based on our prior experience, it is possible to see significant rainfall events, as Ondoy (Typhoon Ketsana) in 2009 when El Nino conditions persisted until 2010. Prior to the water crisis, there was extreme (rainfall),” she stated.

In addition, Cayanan noted that the PAGASA estimate for April indicated that 26 provinces would have rainfall that is below average, with “generally normal” precipitation anticipated in May.

The country’s western region is expected to see rain in June, with the possibility of floods owing to habagat.

By July, things should be back to normal, although Cayanan issued a warning that flooding in the country’s west was still a possibility. However, Tarlac is expected to have isolated below-average rainfall.

By August, the effects of the strengthened southwest monsoon might be felt in the western region. Below-average rainfall may occur in some regions, including the Visayas, Northern Mindanao, the Zamboanga Peninsula, and Bicol.

“In general, we anticipate rain through September, with significant rainfall in the west. The month of July is often when El Nino could be at its most active, according to the expert.

One tropical cyclone is forecast by PAGASA for April, one or two for May and June, and two to three for each of July, August, and September.

While Metro Manila’s temperature may rise to 37.9 °C in May, Cayanan predicted Northern Luzon will have a maximum temperature of 40.9 °C.

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