Analysts warn that Europe’s energy crisis is likely to persist.
No matter how the conflict develops, analysts have cautioned the energy shocks that sent tremors through Europe after the abrupt onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict a year ago are unlikely to disappear entirely.
The fight that has heightened the volatility of the energy markets and driven up prices began one year ago on February 24.
According to a World Economic Forum (WEF) research released this week, household energy costs have nearly doubled globally since the conflict began, driving inflation to all-time highs in several nations throughout Europe and beyond.
The WEF research claims that the conflict is also impeding the industrialized world’s shift to renewable energy sources and raising the rate of poverty around the world by fostering energy insecurity.
Leaders of the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and the World Trade Organization (WTO) stated earlier this month that food insecurity is a growing issue as a result of the situation in Ukraine, increasing the need for wealthy nations in Europe and elsewhere to take additional measures to address the issue.
As this has been happening, European nations have been frantically searching for new supplies of natural gas and petroleum to replace the energy they had been importing from Russia prior to the crisis.
This is particularly true for Germany and Italy, the two main importers and exporters of Russian energy in the European Union (EU) prior to the commencement of the conflict.
Locally, recent events have severely hampered the expansion of companies of all sorts, striking just as economies are recovering from the effects of the coronavirus pandemic.
According to Eurostat, the EU’s statistical office, the number of new business registrations decreased and the number of bankruptcies rose in the fourth quarter of last year.
According to Lorenzo Codogno, founder and chief economist of LC Macro Advisors and a visiting lecturer at the London School of Economics, “the energy shock in Europe is essentially here to stay.”
“There is no supply of gas (from Russia) and there is a dearth of oil, and I believe that this situation will last for the next 10 to 20 years. This is not a short-term problem, he declared.
Professor of statistical economics at Rome’s La Sapienza University, Alessandro Polli predicts that the ongoing energy shock will have long-term economic effects beyond the immediate effects of energy scarcity and rising costs.
European nations must “lower dependence on fossil fuels and protect their industrial base” in addition to “confronting difficulties related to energy pricing,” Polli told Xinhua.
Polli thinks that the current scenario will have greater economic repercussions than the 2008โ2009 global financial crisisโpossibly the greatest for the European continent since World War II.
Codogno asserts that people from all walks of life will experience various economic effects.
It all adds up to less money that can be spent on other things, according to Codogno. Essentially, it is a long-term shock to investment and consumption. I believe it might have a long-term effect on Europe’s economic expansion.
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