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PH economic managers reduce the growth forecast for ’23

After taking into account how external developments might affect the domestic economy, economic managers reduced the government’s 2023 growth forecast from 6.5-8 percent to 6-7 percent on Monday.

Amenah Pangandaman, the secretary of budget and management and chair of the inter-agency development budget coordination committee (DBCC), stated at a briefing that they anticipate domestic output to slow down from its strong performance this year to that of this year due to a number of factors, such as the slowdown in major advanced economies.

The gross domestic product (GDP) growth estimate for this year was maintained by the DBCC at 6.5–7.5 percent, despite the fact that it increased by 7.7 percent in the first three quarters of the year, above the full-year objective.

“As we push for government initiatives and interventions of the Philippine Development Plan 2023–2028, growth is predicted to pick up in 2024 to 2028 at 6.5 to 8.0 percent. These include, among others, modernizing the agricultural and agribusiness sectors, reviving the industrial sector, and reviving the services sector, according to Pangandaman.

The growth forecast for 2024–2028 was left unchanged.

Meanwhile, Rose Edillion, Undersecretary of the National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA), stated that tourism is anticipated to pick up steam and help the economy recover.

While the number of overseas visitors has not yet fully recovered, she claimed that this is being offset by the steady rise in domestic visitors, which is being supported by the relaxation of travel rules in light of pandemic-related legislation.

Economic managers also changed the 2022 inflation assumptions from 4.5-5.5 percent to 5.8 percent, the assumption for Dubai crude oil from USD90-100 per barrel to USD98-100 per barrel, the assumption for foreign exchange from PHP51-53 to PHP54-55 to a US dollar, and the growth rates for exports and imports of goods from 7 percent to 4 percent and 18 percent to 20 percent, respectively.

Following the better-than-anticipated tax collections in the first 10 months of this year, economic managers increased the 2022 revenue prediction from PHP3.3 trillion to PHP3.5 trillion during the DBCC meeting in July.

Pangandaman stated that “this is linked to the better tax collection and digitalization initiatives of the government.”

According to figures from the Bureau of the Treasury, total revenues increased by 14.14 percent in October of last year to PHP288.9 billion, and they are expected to increase by 18.31 percent annually to PHP2.945 trillion by the end of October 2022.

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