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The peso is expected to stabilize at 55 to 56 to the US dollar.

Prior to the anticipated pause in the Federal Reserve’s rate hike cycle and the continuance of the same choice for the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) this month, the Philippine peso is predicted to stabilize between 55 and 56 against the US dollar.

Michael Ricafort, the chief economist of Rizal Commercial Banking Corporation (RCBC), stated in a report that the local currency dropped to one of its one-week lows since 2022 when it closed the trading week at 56.05.

He predicted that it would stabilize between 55.00 to 56.00 levels, which is lower than the floor levels of 53 to 54 he had predicted earlier in the year.

According to Ricafort, the local unit’s next resistance level is roughly 56.30, and the main resistance ranges from 56.35 to 56.95.

According to him, this range “need(s) to be protected vs. further upside or risk of higher inflation.”

The rate decision of the Federal Reserve, which is anticipated to hold its key rates following the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on June 13–14, is one of the variables, according to Ricafort, that are predicted to move the foreign exchange market this week.

Another factor is the potential continuance of the Monetary Board’s (MB) decision to maintain the key interest rates at their current levels, as it did last month, while domestic inflation slows down.

The government’s target range of 2 to 4 percent is expected to be reached by the end of this year, according to forecasts from the monetary authorities. In May of last year, the inflation rate decreased further from the previous month’s 6.6 percent to 6.1 percent.

However, Ricafort noted that “the markets recently priced in a possible +0.25 Fed rate hike on July 26, 2023, as also signaling earlier by some Fed officials; as any future Fed rate moves (pause or hike) could be matched locally to maintain healthy interest rate differential at +1.00 to also help stabilize the peso exchange rate and overall inflation.”

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