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According to a study released on October 12, 2021, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered its global economic growth forecast for 2021 to 5.9 percent, a 0.1 percentage point decrease.

In its World Economic Outlook, the IMF maintained its forecast for 2022 at 4.9 percent, unchanged from the last update published in July.

The IMF said, referring to pandemic-caused longer-than-expected supply constraints, that “…risks to economic prospects have risen, and policy trade-offs have become more complicated.”

It emphasized that the economic prognosis for low-income developing countries has substantially deteriorated owing to “worsening epidemic dynamics,” while supply disruptions make the advanced economy group’s near-term prospects more challenging.

The advanced economies are expected to expand by 5.2 percent this year, a 0.4 percentage point decrease from the previous estimate.

The IMF predicted that global growth will slow to 3.3 percent in the medium term (beyond 2022).

As a result of anticipated governmental assistance in the United States, advanced economy production is expected to surpass pre-pandemic medium-term forecasts.

“By contrast, sustained production losses are expected for the emerging market and developing countries group owing to slower vaccine rollouts and usually less governmental assistance compared to advanced economies,” the report said.

The IMF expects pricing pressures to ease next year as a result of increasing inflation caused by supply-demand mismatches and increased commodity prices.

The worldwide body increased the Turkish economy’s growth estimate for 2021 to 9% from 5.8 percent, while keeping the figure for next year at 3.3 percent.

The IMF forecasts the US economy’s growth rate to increase by one percentage point to 6% in 2021. The world’s second-largest economy, China, is projected to grow by 8% this year, a 0.1 percentage point decrease from last year.

The fund forecasted 5% growth in the eurozone in 2021, up from 5.4 percent in the July report.

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