NextGen Day

In the final quarter of 2022, among other factors, high inflation and peso devaluation affected business and consumer optimism.

Senior Director Redentor Paolo Alegre Jr. of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) Department of Economic Statistics (DES) stated in a briefing on Friday that the consumer expectation survey’s (CES) confidence index (CI) for the current quarter fell further to -14.6 percent from a quarter earlier’s -12.9 percent.

The CES, conducted last October 1–13, revealed that, per component indicator, the index for economic condition decreased further to -22 percent, the family income decreased to -7.4 percent, while the family financial situation improved to –14.3%.

The consumer respondents believe that economic indices such as inflation and interest rates are improving, but they believe that the peso’s value versus the US dollar and the unemployment rate is still declining. These are all indicators for the current quarter and the upcoming twelve months.

Alegre claimed that the country’s dwindling consumer confidence during the quarter was comparable to that of Australia, South Korea, and Taiwan.

Relatively, the CI for the business expectations survey (BES) dropped to 23.9 percent from 26.1 percent in the prior three months for the second consecutive quarter.

Increased inflation, peso depreciation, a reduction in demand and sales, and rising production input costs were all blamed for the decline.

According to BES respondents, the peso will continue to weaken against the US dollar during the course of the following 12 months, along with inflation and the cost of borrowing pesos.

The survey’s findings reveal that respondents do not anticipate inflation to rise above the government’s goal range of 2-4 percent until the following year.

According to the respondents, inflation will be on average 6.2 percent this quarter, 6.1 percent the following quarter, and 5.9 percent over the following 12 months.

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