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PSEi declines on predictions of a Fed rate increase, but the peso holds steady

The local major equity index continued to decline on Wednesday as a result of expectations for future increases in the Federal Reserve’s key rates, while the peso maintained its position versus the US dollar.

To reach 6,709.34 points, the Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) lost 0.70 percent or 47.35 points.

To reach 3,539.46 points, All Shares dropped by 0.56 percent or 19.77 points.

The majority of sectoral indices also decreased throughout the day, including Holding Firms (-0.29%), Financials (1.53%), Property (1.49%), and Services (0.59%).

Mining and Oil also increased by 0.28 percent, while Industrial increased by 0.38 percent.

1.55 billion shares totaling PHP7.87 billion were traded.

101 shares were unchanged, 89 shares advanced, and 48 shares declined.

Luis Limlingan, the head of sales at Regina Capital Development Corporation (RCDC), stated that “Philippine shares fell ahead of earnings season and future anticipated rate hikes from the Fed (Federal Reserve).

The US government’s prediction that petroleum demand will reach a record next year was another factor Limlingan mentioned in explaining the surge in world oil prices.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent crude oil prices both increased by 0.6 percent to USD80.10 and USD75.12 per barrel, respectively.

In contrast, the peso made little movement versus the US dollar and ended the day at 54.8, down from 52.87 on Tuesday.

It started the day at 54.8, an improvement over the previous day’s 54.95 openings.

It fluctuated between 55.04 and 54.75, averaging 54.928.

Volume increased somewhat from the day before, when it was a little over $1 billion USD.

According to Michael Ricafort, chief economist at Rizal Commercial Banking Corporation (RCBC), the local unit closed at its lowest level in more than six months or since closing the trade at 54.77 on June 28, 2022, in part because the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) has given signals that future rate increases will only be in the range of 25 to 50 basis points, rather than 75 basis points.

Despite doubting a rate decrease, he said that a clearer BSP rate strategy “may nonetheless support/stabilize the peso exchange rate and overall inflation.”

The easing of China’s coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) import restrictions, a drop in the price of oil on the world market year over year, and significant interest in the Philippines’ most recent global bond offering are other factors that supported the peso.

According to Ricafort, the peso will fluctuate on Thursday between 54.70 and 54.90 to the US dollar.

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